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Plain English Answer: I have written a computer function which simulates neutral evolution to solve this problem. It's not an exact mathematical answer, but it is basically the same approach as Kimura and Ohta took in (the second half of) their paper, except that my computer is more powerful than their one, so I could get far more precise estimates by ...


One of the limiting factors is how many uninfected hosts exist. As a pathogen becomes more widespread, the probability of someone infected with it infecting someone else decreases, as it's more likely that the person will spread the disease to someone who already has it instead of someone who doesn't have it, preventing the virus's population size from ...

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