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Largely an informed guess based on properties of distributions rather than specific knowledge of statistical genetics: a beta distribution is useful for modeling the frequencies of two alleles at one locus. A Dirichelet distribution, which is a multivariate generalization of a beta distribution, would thus be useful for modeling a set of loci. The flip side ...


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Assuming... The parents are the real biological parents (no cheating allowed!) There is a purely dominance/recessivity relationship between the alleles and no individual can express the disorder without being homozygous for the disease causes allele De novo mutations for the disorder are rare enough to be ignored in the calculation of this probability ...



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