1,820 reputation
420
bio website confounding.net
location United States
age 30
visits member for 2 years, 4 months
seen Feb 24 at 17:35

Infectious disease epidemiologist specializing in the intersection between mathematical models of disease transmission and observational methods. Crafter of artisanal simulation models for the discerning scientist. Oddly fond of enteric pathogens.

A fair hand at SAS, Python and R

@GermsAndNumbers


Jan
13
comment Could murder be modeled as an infectious disease?
@ThomasIngalls That objection is also true for infectious diseases, which is why we model in the first place.
Jan
7
comment Why do parasites sometimes kill their hosts?
+1 - a number of the parasites that cause human disease aren't supposed to be in us. We're an odd side-note in their lifecycle.
Dec
4
comment Do invasive species cause long-term damage to ecosystems they invade?
@Beofett I used an extreme example, but it's never the less useful to make sure your question is bounded by scope and time, because it changes the answer.
Dec
3
comment Do invasive species cause long-term damage to ecosystems they invade?
It might also help to define what you meant by "ecosystem". If we consider the intestinal tract of a human as a microbial ecosystem, it's rather straightforward to show that invasive species cause long-term damage, by killing the host.
Dec
3
comment Do we actually get more sick (flu/cold) during winter?
As this answer cites my paper, it is clearly correct ;). I would note that it's true for influenza, and a few other winter-circulating diseases (Norovirus comes to mind). Other infections are more prevalent in the summer (many bacterial GI infections for example) and some don't care at all.
Jun
15
comment Understanding SIR models in epidemiology
Is it, for example, possible that you meant "saturation contact rate", and are perhaps discussing choosing between frequency and density dependent mixing?
Jun
15
comment Understanding SIR models in epidemiology
I'm an Epidemiologist that does mathematical modeling, and to be frank, I've never heard the term. Can you provide a brief definition as you've encountered it, or at least some context that I might be able to build off of?
Jan
4
comment Is it possible that the recipient of a heart transplant would display some of the donor's personality traits, as if the heart has memories?
Alternately, they could be lied to about who their donor "was" to see if they manifest the memories and feelings of a 22 year old woman when their donor was actually a 35 year old man. Though I'm pretty sure an IRB would clobber that too.
Jan
3
comment Are there people cured of HIV by means of HAART?
@RoryM Indeed - a drug-based 'cure' for HIV is hardly a finding that would go under the radar.
Dec
15
comment Vaccination and population dynamics of an epidemic
Yes, that's correct.
Dec
11
comment Vaccination and population dynamics of an epidemic
You should ensure that the basic reproductive number for your Finland model is capable of sustaining an epidemic without vaccination.
Sep
16
comment How is duration of efficacy estimated for vaccines?
I've added some details to my answer. Your answer doesn't particularly conflict, its just asking about a subtly different process.
Aug
23
comment Does making yogurt from non-pasteurized milk work against possible disease bacteria?
@nico And you have not established that there are not. I pointed to a raw milk outbreak in Finland less than a month ago. There are others - your perception that they're aren't any doesn't necessarily mesh with reality. But foodborn outbreaks have to be very large to get much press, and raw milk products, even in Europe, aren't big enough to command that kind of attention. Also steak tartare has a very different pathogenic risk profile to hamburger meat ;)
Aug
23
comment Does making yogurt from non-pasteurized milk work against possible disease bacteria?
@nico As to the Slow Food page, while I have some issues with it overall, whether or not raw milk is good 'on the whole' was not the question - the question was whether raw milk yogurt would represent a new positive prevention for disease bacteria. I'd argue that the weight of the evidence for that is still firmly "no".
Aug
23
comment Does making yogurt from non-pasteurized milk work against possible disease bacteria?
@nico I very much doubt there's a genetic component - the time scale we're talking about between the divergence from raw milk to widespread pasteurization is quite short. Odds are that people in France simply accept the risk, in the same way people in the U.S. accept the risk of say, medium/medium-rare hamburger.
Aug
23
comment Does making yogurt from non-pasteurized milk work against possible disease bacteria?
@nico Added information and some nuance to the answer. It's a "staggering proportion" given the volume of raw milk consumed in this country. I suspect the same is true for the great part of Europe - people eat food that will give them food-born illness all the time. Unless its a massive outbreak in a popular food item, you won't hear about it.
Aug
11
comment What is the difference between naive and adjusted p-values in a GWAS study?
I suspect one of the reasons to report the unadjusted value is, as I allude to in my answer, many papers are now simply using a non-0.05 cutoff point instead of using some sort of multiple comparisons adjustment (which have their own issues). The unadjusted answer allows for comparison with those studies - I don't actually think its a red herring.
Aug
11
comment What is the difference between naive and adjusted p-values in a GWAS study?
Please consider accepting some of the answers to your previous questions.
Mar
12
comment How does herpes (HSV) infection suppress HIV?
Also, can we have a citation on this claim? Most of what I've seen suggests that HSV-2 is a risk factor for the acquisition of HIV, and that is is the suppression of HSV using acyclovir that helps prevent HIV.
Mar
12
comment How does herpes (HSV) infection suppress HIV?
@bobthejoe I don't think it is. For example, HSV-1 and HSV-2 are massively different infections, and both are extremely common in humans.