I come from a mathematical background but I have no experience with the topic of mathematical biology.

Are there well established mathematical/statistical models for forecasting the evolution of population distributions of biometric parameter such as age, sex, weight, and height? For instance, I have often heard that the proportion of elderly people in the population is projected to increase. What models are being used to generate forecasts such as these?

  • $\begingroup$ It's not possible to accurately predict the course of evolution in humans. I imagine the models you are thinking of are based on socioeconomics rather than biology. $\endgroup$ – user438383 Apr 18 at 13:34
  • $\begingroup$ You better let the national statistics offices of every country know then because they all make future projections of age and gender population distributions. Health bodies make projections of weight distribution. So I am wondering what models are being used to generate these type of projections. I am particularly interested in models that take a stochastic viewpoint, although I am also interesting hearing about deterministic models. $\endgroup$ – sonicboom Apr 18 at 14:22
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    $\begingroup$ Those models aren't base on biological evolution which is what I interpret your question to be asking about. $\endgroup$ – user438383 Apr 18 at 14:25
  • $\begingroup$ I get where your coming from. The models I am looking for information on relate to population dynamics which is a field of mathematical biology. $\endgroup$ – sonicboom Apr 18 at 14:28
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    $\begingroup$ It might be irrelevant to your question but search for "allometry". $\endgroup$ – Sam Apr 19 at 7:13

The term you are looking for is demography - there are literally thousands of papers published on this topic.

Each of your topics mentioned has its own models and prevailing theories, so without an exact question it is very hard to answer as to which model you might find best.

Having said that there are well established models of things like geometric growth of populations (proposed by Thomas Malthus in 1798). The United Nations does a lot of modeling of populations and the like. You might be interested in their freely available publications and information here.


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