If there has been an ejaculation by the male, and semen is present, there is a chance of getting pregnant. Period. Teens really need to know that.
I think you may have your terms confused - semen is the overall fluid released during an ejaculation, sperm are the cells with tails that are produced in the testes and fertilize the egg. At any rate, according to the WHO, a normal sperm count is over 15 million per milliliter, with some counts much higher (>50e6/ml ), and an average between 20 and 40 million. The volume of the ejeculate tends to be anywhere from 1-6 ml. If you take a healthy young male at the peak of his reproductive capabilities, this equates to a very large number of sperm being released during a sexual encounter. All it takes is for one to reach an egg and fertilize it. Sperm are very very small, much smaller than the pore size of average fabric, so clothing will do very little to stop them. The female is likely sexually aroused during this activity as well, and produces additional fluids and lubricants that promote the survival and motility of sperm, among other things.
So, it depends on many factors. If both parties are fully clothed (at least 4 layers of clothing between their respective reproductive organs) and there is a minumum of soaking through, the chances of pregnancy are correspondingly quite low. On the other hand, if only one partner is wearing just their underwear, it's essentially like there is no clothing present at all, and the relative chances go up significantly.
Safe sex practices can't be emphasized enough to young people, as education and awareness is so much better than ignorance and myths. Even aside from pregnancy, if condoms are not utilized properly to contain all the semen there is the chance of sexually-transmitted diseases, ranging from herpes and gonorrhea to AIDS. None of these require penetration to be passed along, and one might argue that the additional presence of potentially irritating fabrics could open up raw areas or cuts and enhance their transmittal.
Take home message
Now, all this being said, the chances of impregnation through clothing without direct penetration of the penis into the vagina is quite low compared to "typical" unprotected fully-penetrating intercourse, especially depending on where the female is in her fertility cycle. According to this study, a woman's most fertile day is two days before ovulation (as had been postulated before), and the chances of pregnancy on that day are about 25% (assuming penetrating intercourse). Overall, the chance of pregnancy throughout the month is about 5%.
I don't have any hard numbers on the pregnancy chances when one or both partners have at least some clothing on, as obviously it will vary greatly depending on who is wearing what, the volume of ejaculate, contact time after ejaculation, etc. Just for fun, let's assume it's 100 times lower. That means the chances of impregnation two days pre-ovulation would be 0.25%, or 1 in 400. While rather low, this is still a non-zero chance.
Condoms are about 98% effective if used properly during penetrative vaginal intercourse. Various other birth control methods such as contraceptive pills, intrauterine devices, implants and injections are quoted as being 99% effective on their own, although they do not protect against sexually transmitted diseases. I'm certainly not one for preaching abstinence, but done properly it should be 100% effective. Ultimately, it is up to both partners to decide what their risk tolerances are, together. It is much better to seriously talk about it beforehand than to be panicked and unsure afterwards.
Hopefully this addresses your concerns, please leave comments if you have additional questions.
