This is a question having to do with my generation ship story but more specifically, genetics, and even more specifically, genetic disease.
Here are the conditions as far as people with or without genetic disease go:
People with disease: sterilization + alternative ways to have children and absolutely no sex before sterilization
Carriers: warn that their children might need sterilizing
Not carriers: Absolutely nothing
Now I know these types of genetic diseases would be eliminated in 1 generation:
- Y linked(Azoospermia for example)
- X linked dominant(Such as Vitamin D resistant rickets)
- Autosomal dominant(For example Huntington's disease)
A truly codominant genetic disease is impossible because you can't both have and not have the disease simultaneously. Instead it would be better to say it is incomplete dominant.
But with these conditions, is it possible for genetic disease to be totally eliminated after hundreds of generations(say 500 generations)? In other words is it possible for these types of disease to be eliminated:
- Incomplete dominant(Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency as an example(but I found out this also falls under multiple alleles))
- Autosomal recessive(sickle cell anemia for example)
- X linked recessive(such as Hemophilia A)
- Multiple alleles(Again A1AT deficiency is an example of this)
I found out that human population growth globally averages around 1.1% per year. And a reasonable number to have on a generation ship is 44,000 people. About 9% of them would be 65+, 65% between 15 and 64 with 20% of that being women of reproductive age, 50% being men of reproductive age, 15% post-menopausal women, and a small 5% being those that are still not in puberty, with the other 26% of the population being from 8 to 14, of which 75% are not in puberty yet and 25% are. Sex ratio is 1:1. This would mean a minimum of 815 babies born per year to compensate for 343 deaths per year. Or about 2.3 times as many babies born as deaths.
So given this and the genotype ratios for the possible punnet squares which I already wrote down, how would I figure out the probability that all genetic disease is eliminated after x generations?