Two classes of factors contributing to spinogenesis have been described in the literature, based on whether they can be considered extrinsic or intrinsic to the dendrite (my classification). Here is a shortlist of evidence in favour of either:
A. Extrinsic:
B. Intrinsic:
A proposed mechanism extrinsic to the dendrite that can lead to spinogenesis is glutamate spill-over. Conceivable mechanisms intrinsic to the dendrite that can control spinogenesis can be the competition for resources (structural proteins, mRNA etc).
Dendrites of pyramidal cells in some areas of the cortex and the hippocampus exhibit a relatively high turn-over of spine formation and elimination (Holtmaat et al. 2005, Attardo et al. 2015), at least as compared to axonal boutons (e.g. de Paola 2006). Whereas some of these new spines stabilize, many disappear soon after their formation. This indicates that, at least in part, their creation is not fully specified by the existence of a pre-synaptic partner, if we assume that the pre-synaptic partner continues to "attract" them (and that's a big if). The relative independence of spinogenesis from presynaptic activity is further corroborated by the fact that most new spines lack a synapse (Knott et al., 2006).
It appears, then, that dendrites over-produce spines in order to sample their environment for potential synaptic partners. The advantage of such a mechanism can be seen when considering the potential wiring diagram changes that neurons can achieve with such relatively cost-less microscopic changes (Stepanyants et al. 2002). It is unclear at the moment at what point between spinogenesis and synapse formation presynaptic activity becomes an influencing factor in the intact adult brain. A theory incorporating the existing information on spinogenesis is forthcoming.
Attardo A, Fitzgerald JE, Schnitzer MJ. (2015) Impermanence of
dendritic spines in live adult CA1 hippocampus. Nature,
523(7562), 592-596. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14467
De Paola, V., Holtmaat, A., Knott, G., Song, S., Wilbrecht, L.,
Caroni, P., & Svoboda, K. (2006). Cell Type-Specific Structural
Plasticity of Axonal Branches and Boutons in the Adult Neocortex.
Neuron, 49(6), 861–875. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2006.02.017
Fu, M., Yu, X., Lu, J., & Zuo, Y. (2012). Repetitive motor learning
induces coordinated formation of clustered dendritic spines in vivo.
Nature, 483(7387), 92–95. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10844
Holtmaat, A. J. G. D., Trachtenberg, J. T., Wilbrecht, L., Shepherd,
G. M., Zhang, X., Knott, G. W., & Svoboda, K. (2005). Transient and
Persistent Dendritic Spines in the Neocortex In Vivo. Neuron,
45(2), 279–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2005.01.003
Knott, G. W., Holtmaat, A., Wilbrecht, L., Welker, E., & Svoboda, K.
(2006). Spine growth precedes synapse formation in the adult
neocortex in vivo. Nature Neuroscience, 9(9), 1117–1124.
https://doi.org/10.1038/nn1747
Kwon, H.-B., & Sabatini, B. L. (2011). Glutamate induces de novo
growth of functional spines in developing cortex. Nature,
474(7349), 100–104. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09986
Nägerl, U. V., Köstinger, G., Anderson, J. C., Martin, K. A. C., &
Bonhoeffer, T. (2007). Protracted synaptogenesis after
activity-dependent spinogenesis in hippocampal neurons. The Journal
of Neuroscience, 27(30), 8149–56.
https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.0511-07.2007
Richards, D. A., Mateos, J. M., Hugel, S., de Paola, V., Caroni, P.,
Gahwiler, B. H., & McKinney, R. A. (2005). Glutamate induces the
rapid formation of spine head protrusions in hippocampal slice
cultures. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
102(17), 6166–6171. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0501881102
Stepanyants, A., Hof, P. R., & Chklovskii, D. B. (2002). Geometry and
structural plasticity of synaptic connectivity. Neuron, 34(2),
275–88. Retrieved from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11970869
Toni, N., Buchs, P. A., Nikonenko, I., Bron, C. R., & Muller, D.
(1999). LTP promotes formation of multiple spine synapses between a
single axon terminal and a dendrite. Nature, 402(6760), 421–5.
https://doi.org/10.1038/46574
Toni, N., Teng, E. M., Bushong, E. a, Aimone, J. B., Zhao, C.,
Consiglio, A., … Gage, F. H. (2007). Synapse formation on neurons
born in the adult hippocampus. Nature Neuroscience, 10(6),
727–734. https://doi.org/10.1038/nn1908