# Probability for a megafauna specimen to exhibit a gene not present in either parent

What is the rough probability for a megafauna specimen to exhibit a gene not present in either parent?

I'm looking, ideally, at the chance for one specific individual to be the first in a breeding population to have a given gene.

• So similar : biology.stackexchange.com/q/86138/38451 – Solar Mike Aug 14 '19 at 15:44
• Not similar at all. – iayork Aug 14 '19 at 15:46
• @Christos Similar to what iayork's answer has expressed, when do you think a mutation results in a new gene? If you had a protein with one function (e.g. kinase activity) that gradually evolved another function (e.g. trafficking), where is the cutoff between them? Which is the kinase gene and which is the trafficking gene? For this reason, your question is incomplete and cannot have a definite answer. – Jam Aug 14 '19 at 18:57
• well for scale every single human carries around ~100 mutation in is sequence. but this is going to depend a lot on the size of the genome. – John Aug 15 '19 at 18:40
• The rate of evolution (as a result of germline mutagenesis) depends on many environmental factors. Scally (2016) suggests that germline mutation rate is approximately $0.5 \times 10^{-9} \text{bp}^{−1} \text{year}^{−1}$ in humans. You may be able to calculate the probability from here. It may be different for other organisms. Moreover, evolution can also happen because of gene duplication (as David said) and horizontal gene transfer, transposition etc. So you may narrow your question down a bit. – WYSIWYG Aug 19 '19 at 8:42