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Our team and I work on a project for the Lauzhack 2020 and to achieve this work, we need to determine some factors that can tell us what is the probability of contracting the coronavirus. Is there any one who know what are the determining factor to compute the probability of catching the virus ? (for example some research paper about it). For example, we know that if we are old, and if we are in contact regularly with people, we are most likely to catch the disease. We would like to have some basic knowledge about the transmission of the virus. We would need data about the probability of being infected as a function of the time we had been in contact with someone who have the disease. Any help would be appreciated !

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    $\begingroup$ For example, we know that if we are old, and if we are in contact regularly with people, we are most likely to catch the disease. -- Yes, contact with other people is a risk factor for transmission, but is age? Sure, older folks are more likely to succumb to the virus, but I think it's important that you parse the concepts of probability of viral transmission and likelihood of symptomatic viral infection. $\endgroup$ – acvill Apr 7 at 18:30
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I'd refer you to a couple of papers in Lancet, here and here. They, in fact, have a mathematical treatment of this very question, and in the supplementary material they list some parameters that might be useful to you. Good luck!

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  • $\begingroup$ hello and thank you ! where can a find these lists in the paper ? $\endgroup$ – Dicordi Apr 5 at 13:59
  • $\begingroup$ In the supplementary information of the second reference (a PDF file you'll find at the end of the paper) you'll find a table with the parameters they used. $\endgroup$ – TumbiSapichu Apr 5 at 14:00

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