Not sure whether this belongs here or in the Gardening & Landscaping StackExchange, but here goes...

According to maps provided in the paper Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution which assumes no reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, by the end of the century climates (for example) suitable for Theobroma cacao (with rigorous irrigation) and Cocos nucifera may extend at least to Porto Santo Island (33.08(3)°), the latter possibly to the Azores (38°) given that they are more tolerant of anemic winter heat than frost, for Carnegiea gigantea Northeast Kazakhstan (43.208(3)°), for Olea europaea North-Central Iceland (66.525°), for Malus domesticus Knivskjellodden (71.18(5)°), for Trachycarpus takil Knivskjellodden (71.18(5)°) or potentially even Southwestern Svalbard (77.5(3)°), and for trees in general the Eureka area on Ellesmere Island (79.48(3)°).

However, even though poleward areas may become suitable for species previously restricted to areas closer to the equator in terms of their thermal and precipitation profile, they may not in terms of their solar profile. I mean, while a Windmill palm would be able to accept the mid-10s °C summers and slightly-above-freezing winters of future Finnmark, would it accept the month of darkness and low solar angle except in mid-summer? Would olives tolerate the midnight sun? Would coconuts withstand the sub-30° zenith angles of the mid-latitude winter? This question could also apply to the extreme low latitude limits of species; for example, could hemiboreal Hol/Nearctic winter-deciduous trees live in the modern Southern Altiplano where average monthly temperatures are vaguely similar but the latitude is inside the tropics?

So... Have there been any studies on the potential latitudinal limits for different plant species? They don't have to be for the species I've mentioned, those were just examples.


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