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You are the victim of the "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy: just because event B follows event A doesn't mean that B is caused by A. The probability of a mutation to occur depends on the number of virions out there multiplied with some constant that models the faithfulness of the virus reproduction machinery. The lock-down was instituted because ...


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Current Biology 30, R841–R870, August 3, 2020 R857, does support some of your theory. The paper summarizes the scientific basis of their statements: Even though the adaptive significance of genetic variants remains to be established, we can use evolutionary theory to gain insights about how natural selection might act on disease characteristics. The ...


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I'm going to answer this one with a No. Outside of a simple simulation with very unrealistic constraints, we can't know the basic parameters to generate such a number. From an omniscient point of view there would be some number where this becomes inevitable, but from that point of view we could say it is inevitable or impossible right now. Some aspects to ...


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Epidemiological modeling If a virus is able to change so that it renders previous vaccination inefficient, reinfecting those who were previously vaccinated, one could describe this process using epidemiological SIS model (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) or its modification that includes a vaccinated group (like SISV model), and indeed estimate how quick ...


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Obviously, there won't be a single number for this. The phenomenon is fairly well understood in yeast. Unfortunately, most studies tend to focus on the rate of formation of specific well-understood rearrangements, and then use that as a baseline. I am having trouble finding a measurement of overall rearrangement rate, although the system is ideal for this. ...


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Definition of species by the criteria of not being able to breed is problematic: e.g., some breeds of dogs cannot breed, due to the differences in their sizes, yet they are the sale species, as could be dhown by artificial fertilization. Now, if we take any two closely related species and trace their genealogy deep in the past, we run into the same ambiguity:...


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Do lockdowns help new mutations emerge? - No. Mutations appear at an approximately constant rate in every genome replucation event. In this sense, the lockdowns reduced the overall number of mutations, by reducing the number of infections and new replucation events. Could lockdowns help new mutations become prevalent? - Possibly. Whether a new mutation ...


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This is more plausible (second point below) and less plausible (third point below). Selective advantage The emergence of a new strain of a virus relates to the selective advantage (Gordo 2009). This selective advantage might be that the reproduction rate is relatively higher. Reproduction rate The selective advantage (in terms of relative growth rate) is ...


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While I get your intuition, the hypothesis seems implausible Emerge of new CoV variants should be considered proportional to the current spread of the virus. Each virus has a certain mutation rate that surely does not depend on lock-downs. It seems implausible to interpret lock-downs as physical limitations to viral spread, that could potentially be ...


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HIV and SARS-CoV-2 are two very different viruses in terms of how the are transmitted, how they replicate within the cells, how they interact with the immune system, etc. All of these aspects of a virus existence are highly adapted to assure virus survival (otherwise this virus quickly goes extinct). The ongoing mutations do help a virus to adapt to somewhat ...


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They are different normalizations of the same number. It's the question of whether you want to know how many mutations can be expected at a single position in a genome, or whether you want to know how many mutations occur across the entire genome. See wikipedia, for instance: There are several natural units of time for each of these rates, with rates being ...


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This is simply a coincidence. A RNA Virus will mutate all the time (although this one is pretty stable), there are thousands of known mutations (see Nextstrain for detailed information). It is only a matter of time, until one of these will dominate the others. It may also be the effect of a few superspreading events where one virus type is strongly promoted,...


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As it has been pointed in the comments by @user438383, the mutation itself cannot be a consequence of the vaccination program - what is really suggested is that this is an escape mutation, i.e., adaptation that makes the virus viable in vaccinated persons. However, there is no evidence (yet) that the new strain affects those who have been vaccinated - it ...


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